Weekly Geekage
"Happy Halloween, aight"
Wow...back from rough academic week...I apologize for the lack of southern white trash stereotype upholding and perpetuating content as of late. There's only so many hours in day. Even so, one guy I'll always willing to make time for is, the master of CFB wagering entertainment, The Geek. Lovin' that Ole Miss/Auburn prediction!
7-0, 6-1, 7-3…that's the last 3 weeks, and I won't even bitch about the 50% of those losses that should have been wins. We've been on an unbelievable tear of late, and are looking to keep the good times rollin'. We are about 80% of the way thru this weeks analysis, and have about 15 games we are really focused in on.
My guess at a couple of the SEC games that didn't make the cut for us:
I'm for sure not getting behind Nallsminger and their inept group here, as I'm not convinced they're capable of scoring anything of late, and they way their D is playing leaves me to believe their 38-24 scoring advantage over their offense vs SEC competition might come to an end sooner than later. Still the math shows AU with a slight advantage over Ole Miss on a yppl advantage, but Nutt has owned Dumbo of late, so I think this 3 Daves match up is best left alone…Ole Miss 25 AU 22 (for shits and giggles we'll say Auburn gets to 22 with 4 FGs, 1 special teams TD, one 2 pt conversion, and 1 AU defensive safety), The Nutts rush for close to 200 yards off, but can't quite put the War Eaglers away.
UT is probably now the only team in the SEC worse than AU, and it shows this week v. Darth Visor. Still, the USC QB du-jour this week throws the customary 2 INTs to keep this somewhat close…Cocks 21 UT 15
And now for our little nugget of the week…
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I can pretty much reuse the analysis from last week on the Ole Miss-Ark game, as the same situations are at play here but with the #1 offense in the nation (literally) vs the #60 (to save the ass-hole that actually looks up what Ole Miss's offensive rank is please save it as that is just a guess)…the reality is Ark is still very bad, and was extremely fortunate to cover last week vs an Ole Miss O not even in the same planet as Tulsa's offense that is averaging over 600 yards offense a game and nearly 56 ppg. Arkansas's defense is about average (-0.2 yppl), and stands no chance vs a Tulsa offense torching everyone this year (see above). Arkansas's offenses owns a slight 0.4 yppl advantage on offense, but no where near enough to keep up with Tulsa's +1.6 yppl or +2.7 ypa advantage on offense or their projected 10.5 ypa or 550 (7.6 yypl) yards total offense. My math calls for between 40-53 points for Tulsa, which is right in line with the models.
Arkansas isn't very good and even vs some suspect defensive SEC competition of late (Ole Miss, UK, and Auburn) has only averaged 21 ppg. Tulsa's defense has its issues, but not near enough to surrender 35+ which is what they'll need to surrender here in order for the Pigtrino's to stand a chance. Tulsa's defense is slightly worse than average (-0.3 yppl), but I can't see an Arkansas Offense that hasn't scored more than 28 all season long doing much here in a game where they barely project a meaningful statistical advantage (+0.4 yypl on offense). Our models are split half and half with 30/29 and 22/23 for Arkansas…heck, give them the high side of 30, and take the lowest offensive output for Tulsa this year and we have a 37-30 squeaker. Consider Tulsa's hit 50+ 5 of 7 game and 49+ 6 of 7 games and look to outgain Arkansas 550-390 yards total offense, I don't really mind laying the TD on the mid-major vs the big ugly SEC team. Tulsa 44 Arkansas 25
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