Friday, October 31

Cowboy > Kige?

It seems our new acquaintance Cowboy is ridin' his "beat that ass" Fat Phil, Tennessee video all the way to the top. Deadspin, roundtableradio... I've even seen folks linking to it on facebook. The original video has almost 70,000 views, for Kige's sake. Move over Ramsey. Don't miss the interview of the century...

Bama Fans and Indoor Smoking...goes together like Bear Bryant and Classyness

Weekly Geekage

"Happy Halloween, aight"

Wow...back from rough academic week...I apologize for the lack of southern white trash stereotype upholding and perpetuating content as of late. There's only so many hours in day. Even so, one guy I'll always willing to make time for is, the master of CFB wagering entertainment, The Geek. Lovin' that Ole Miss/Auburn prediction!

7-0, 6-1, 7-3…that's the last 3 weeks, and I won't even bitch about the 50% of those losses that should have been wins. We've been on an unbelievable tear of late, and are looking to keep the good times rollin'. We are about 80% of the way thru this weeks analysis, and have about 15 games we are really focused in on.

My guess at a couple of the SEC games that didn't make the cut for us:

I'm for sure not getting behind Nallsminger and their inept group here, as I'm not convinced they're capable of scoring anything of late, and they way their D is playing leaves me to believe their 38-24 scoring advantage over their offense vs SEC competition might come to an end sooner than later. Still the math shows AU with a slight advantage over Ole Miss on a yppl advantage, but Nutt has owned Dumbo of late, so I think this 3 Daves match up is best left alone…Ole Miss 25 AU 22 (for shits and giggles we'll say Auburn gets to 22 with 4 FGs, 1 special teams TD, one 2 pt conversion, and 1 AU defensive safety), The Nutts rush for close to 200 yards off, but can't quite put the War Eaglers away.

UT is probably now the only team in the SEC worse than AU, and it shows this week v. Darth Visor. Still, the USC QB du-jour this week throws the customary 2 INTs to keep this somewhat close…Cocks 21 UT 15

And now for our little nugget of the week…



Tulsa Golden Hurricanes


Saturday 11/01/2008


Arkansas Razorbacks

I can pretty much reuse the analysis from last week on the Ole Miss-Ark game, as the same situations are at play here but with the #1 offense in the nation (literally) vs the #60 (to save the ass-hole that actually looks up what Ole Miss's offensive rank is please save it as that is just a guess)…the reality is Ark is still very bad, and was extremely fortunate to cover last week vs an Ole Miss O not even in the same planet as Tulsa's offense that is averaging over 600 yards offense a game and nearly 56 ppg. Arkansas's defense is about average (-0.2 yppl), and stands no chance vs a Tulsa offense torching everyone this year (see above). Arkansas's offenses owns a slight 0.4 yppl advantage on offense, but no where near enough to keep up with Tulsa's +1.6 yppl or +2.7 ypa advantage on offense or their projected 10.5 ypa or 550 (7.6 yypl) yards total offense. My math calls for between 40-53 points for Tulsa, which is right in line with the models.

Arkansas isn't very good and even vs some suspect defensive SEC competition of late (Ole Miss, UK, and Auburn) has only averaged 21 ppg. Tulsa's defense has its issues, but not near enough to surrender 35+ which is what they'll need to surrender here in order for the Pigtrino's to stand a chance. Tulsa's defense is slightly worse than average (-0.3 yppl), but I can't see an Arkansas Offense that hasn't scored more than 28 all season long doing much here in a game where they barely project a meaningful statistical advantage (+0.4 yypl on offense). Our models are split half and half with 30/29 and 22/23 for Arkansas…heck, give them the high side of 30, and take the lowest offensive output for Tulsa this year and we have a 37-30 squeaker. Consider Tulsa's hit 50+ 5 of 7 game and 49+ 6 of 7 games and look to outgain Arkansas 550-390 yards total offense, I don't really mind laying the TD on the mid-major vs the big ugly SEC team. Tulsa 44 Arkansas 25


Monday, October 27


Wish I could do this on a wakeboard...

Saban nods his approval after Maze's "selfish" celebration penalty last week.

Sleeveless in Sylacauga?

It seems Jamezzz ain't the only drunk and lonely Tider crying out for attention on a Saturday night. NoShame's actually got some stiff competition here. No, this self proclaimed "cowboy" ain't from Sylacuaga...He's actually from Tennessee (but he don't like no orange). He's a lifetime Tider that's "only been watchin' Bama for a while." I'm torn...

[warning: profanity laced with excessive facial hair]

Who's wins this Neck-off? I put it to a vote on your right.


Friday, October 24

Bama Fan of the Week: "NoShameJamezzz"

If you Wikipedia "The Alabama Fan Stereotype," this is that guy. And If you've ever wondered what a stoned, middle-aged Tider does on a Saturday night, well you are in luck, my friend. RTR, Mr. Jamezzz...

[warning: profane and unkempt]

[more Classic Jamezzz!]
[this video is labeled "Comedy"]

Thursday, October 23

What Saith The Geek?

Booger approves this message

My apologies to The Geek. I received this post at 5:47am (that's one hard working dude) and didn't get it up on the site till about 9:30pm. My bad. Doesn't make it any less awesome though...

We had another great week at TheGeekSheet, going 6-1 on our recommended plays, including a pretty easy winner on the free nugget we gave you all last week with Nebraska destroying Iowa State. We are now a paltry 13-1 the last two weeks, with our only loss coming on Stanford last week when UCLA marched 87 yards with 2 minutes to go, scoring with 15 seconds to go…but hey, you can’t win ‘em all right. We actually have two recommended plays this week on SEC games, which doesn’t happen often for us as we tend to be overtly critical about SEC games, including a play on the ole hotty totties (the other game is the UGA-LSU game). Click here for our recommend plays this week, hell it’s only $40 bucks, which doesn’t even cover the cost of your case of beer and bottle of boone’s farm for the old naggin hen.



Penn State Nittany Lions


Saturday 10/25/2008


Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State continues to be very bad on offense, averaging only 322 ypg (5.1 yppl), which is even worse considering they’ve done it vs average at best defenses (otherwise allowing 362 ypg @ 5.3 yppl). Even last week in their 45 pts showing, they only racked up 332 yards offense and had it not been for 5 MSU turnovers would have been lucky to post much more than 24. Much is made about how good OSUs defense is (which they are as they are only allowing 4.3 yppl), but statistically speaking PSUs defense is better, allowing only 4.0 yppl and slightly better than OSU vs average (+1.1 yppl for PSU to +1.0 yppl for OSU). PSU is only allowing 11 ppg, and in typical Tressell ball fashion, OSU is defying the odds of what their average score should be considering their paltry total offense and yppl statistics (they are averaging 27 pgg despite just 322 ypg). That is mainly due to a 21-8 turnover margin in favor of OSU (that equates to a little over a 1.5 Turnover / game margin in favor of OSU). If you normalize that and evaluate OSUs offense to PSUs defense we come up with a projection of 10-14 pts for OSU on 242 yards offense (4.0 yppl). Even using the entire season’s statistics we come up with 15-17 points, which is in line with our model projections of 15-20 for the Buckeyes. I noted this in my recap last week, but after the egg PSUs defense laid in the 1st quarter of last weeks game they allowed only 2 Michigan drives to gain 1st downs and one of those was Michigan’s last drive, so this is definitely a D capable of completely neutralizing a mediocre offense.

PSUs offense is the best OSU has faced, and outside USC it isn’t even close. Penn State is now averaging 482 ypg (6.9 yppl) this season at 45 ppg. They are really getting it done on the ground where they are averaging 5.7 ypr. OSU (as mentioned above) is pretty solid on defense again (allowing only 4.3 yppl), and pretty decent vs the run allowing 3.5 ypr, but have been roughed up a little vs the good teams they’ve faced who’ve made a commitment to run the football. Wisconsin and USC both rushed for over 150 vs OSU and not surprisingly USC blew them out and Wisc almost beat OSU. My projections call for 4.9 ypr, and 383 yards total offense at 5.6 yppl for PSU. My scoring projections (28-34) are right on top of our models (28-35), and I just can’t see OSU keeping PSU in check the entire game here, particularly with an offense that doesn’t look to be able to get much of anything going. Penn State 30 Ohio State 17.

Good luck to everyone this week, come check us out to see what we have on the big SEC games this week as well as a couple other not-so large contests (we make a living off the MAC, MWC, and SBC). Good luck, and wager wisely…till next time.

The Geek


Wednesday, October 22

Fear and Loathing in Tuscaloosa

My short and sweet photo essay of gameday at the capstone. What an untapped cornicopia of Bama-Fan-of-the-Week awesomeness...

this guys fanhood is bigger than yours

I guess "RTRMFER" was already taken.

we had the pleasure of joining the proletariat in the upper deck

After a trip to Tuscaloosa, creating "smack shirts" is my new life goal. Apparently there's is a huge market for these things. They're like big, sweaty pseudo-offensive greeting cards, but without the wittiness and/or intentional comedy. Seems that one can say whatever dumb shit one wants, as long as it's bold and cap-locked, asshole. Why sit silently and be thought retarded when your tee shirt can remove all doubt?

(why am I suddenly hearing the opening cords of "Gimmie Three Steps" in my head?) Hell effing yes! Keep on rockin' in the free world, brother. (looks like Kid Rock's portly brother actually) Not only is he sporting the most kickass baseball cap known to man, but he's got the Tuscaloosa waterfall to match. Major credit.

The view from my seats...seriously, I didn't even have to move, just turnaround. (Last row, endzone, baby...that's how we roll) Ah Tutwiler, the girls dorm with so many endearing nicknames. "13 Floors of... Totally Not Promiscuous Young Ladies."

Nothing says crimson stud like a camo team hat, a custom lanyard, a never-scared beard, complete with a pony tail holder.

RTR indeed...would have given more credit if it said "2"

Bear would be so proud

Throughout this glorious Saturday, I realized a thing or two. Going to an Alabama game in Tuscaloosa is like having a party at your house and inviting your friends, plus every Stuckey's, Flying J, Waffle House and Hardee's employee between Bossier City and Valdosta. I'll leave you with this...

Nice tube socks [credit: Heath at AverageSouthernJoes] I love how these fine gentlemen say Ole Miss is the best team Bama's gonna face the rest of the season, then they call for a 24 point victory. "Nick Saban vs. God...who ya got?... Da Tahd."

[More Bama/Ole Miss Photo Coverage from Friends of the Program]

Monday, October 20

Touche Boston College Fans...Touche

File this under, "Things SEC fans should have thought of, but didn't." Major Credit, BC hooligans...

Sunday, October 19

Effed Officiating

At first, I thought this was one of those dumbass Buffalo Wild Wings commercials, but It's not...It really happened...

Suddenly, I'm hungry for some corndog nuggets

Yeah, there's really no way to shrug that off as "an accident," "the stupid new guy" or "a flashback to Nam." Watch it again.

Don't throw a forearm shiver to my chest and tell me you're "just doing your job," assface! Damn the man.

This play will go down in history as a rallying cry for all those who truly believe the officials are out to get their team. (like myself) That, or you'll forget about it tomorrow. Either way, it's awesomely bad.

Friday, October 17

Leaving for Tuscaloosabad in the Morning

click to enlarge []

This should be interesting. First non-wakeboarding trip to "The Capstone" (whatever the hell that means) since maybe 2005? Bring on the freaks.

we should all be so lucky

Thursday, October 16

The Best Damn Youtube on The Internets

If you're sick of the kids these days, The Hills, and people making money that shouldn't be, then you'll love this...


What Saith The Geek?

It's good to be The Geek

Guess who's back, Pumpkin-tits.... The Geek from is back to lay some straight college football knowledge on yo ass. If you're a betting man, and/or a degenerate gambler, you'd be wise to listen to the man. Unless you're above 80% on the season...then you need to start your own gosh damn service, asshole.

We had an incredible week last week, going 7-0 on our recommended plays, including a couple of the B12 contests. We actually have two of the bigger SEC games this week that were close to being recommended plays, but that we passed on. Below is the analysis of those games, as well as one play that we are working on right now which will be a recommended play. We are now 27-9 this season on our recommended plays, so for more information about this week’s plays be sure to click here.


Vanderbilt Commodores

Saturday 10/18/2008


Georgia Bulldogs


We still aren’t done with this play and will be spending the rest of the night doing our final analysis on this and about 15 other plays, but based on our work earlier this week I don’t think there will be enough line value to warrant a play. Vandy has been living on borrowed time this season going 5-0 (until last week) despite averaging 250 ypg offenses (even more amazing is that they are averaging 25 ppg at 250 ypg). They’ve only really faced 2 good defenses this year, and that is Auburn and Miss St, and in those last 2 games have only averaged 14 ppg. Fortunately for them those two defenses also happen to be on the teams with the 2 worst offenses in the league. They won’t be so lucky this week as they get a top caliber defense (on par with MSU and AU) which will hold Vandy to 250 & 14 again. UGA’s offense has kind of sputtered around this year, but is still putting up very solid numbers (430 ypg & 33 ppg) to pretty good defenses (that are otherwise allowing only 340 ypg and 23 ppg).

Our projections call for a projected 410 yards for UGA compared to 190 for Vandy. My projections and our other models we uses all have pretty much the same thing with 11-16 pts for Vandy (which at 190 yards if they don’t continue to be the beneficiary of the TO battle and near perfect red zone and special teams play could easily be 0) and 27-37 for UGA. This is definitely a UGA or no bet scenario, and really the only thing keeping me off this is a worse case indicator we run that projects a 25-16 UGA victory. Given Vandy’s track record this year and UGAs shaky performance thus far, that is probably a lot more likely than a 41 – 7 UGA victory. My guess is the magic starts to run out on VAndy, UGA starts to resemble the team we though they’d be this year and UGA pulls way late. UGA 36 Vandy 14.



LSU Fighting Tigers


Saturday 10/18/2008


South Carolina Gamecocks

This is a pretty interesting match up as I am still not really sure what to expect from LSU, particularly after that drubbing last week, and USC has had me mystified all year. Not surprisingly our models are all over the place, with half of them having USC winning out right and half having LSU winning by double digits. Mathematically, LSU is the superior team with better offense (+0.7 yppl to -0.2 yppl) and the team with the better match ups. USC does have a very good defense, but my guess here is that USCs propensity to turn the ball over (they have 20 offensive TOs this season thru only 7 games), and LSUs very good offense (even last week vs UF they managed 21 pts dispite 320 yards and 3 TOs will be more than USCs defense can overcome.

We make it a habit to not go against our models, which will cause us to scratch this game, but I really believe LSU get’s it done here, and probably pretty big. Our models call for a 24-22 LSU victory (which could easily be flipped). However, if you remove UFs performance last week vs LSUs defense and use the balance of the defensive numbers for LSU compared to USCs offense, USC doesn’t get to 300 yards, even with the UF performance last week USC still only gets 340 yards, and with a projected TO margin of 3-1 (USC – LSU), I don’t see much probability USC gets to 20. LSU 27 USC 17.

We don’t really have a good beat on any of the other games, but thought we’d include a snip-it of one our recommended plays this week. For more on this game and the other recommended plays for this week, click here, it’s only $40 bucks, and at 27-9 thus far you would have paid for it about 40 times over thus far this season.



Nebraska Cornhuskers


Saturday 10/18/2008


Iowa State Cyclones

ISU has had a rough go of it of late, and unfortunately for them they haven’t even hit the meat of the high flying B12 offenses. ISU has given up 36.5 ppg & 442 ypg the last 3 weeks to some ok but relatively speaking average offensive units in UNLV, Kansas, and Baylor. The 1st 2 of those 3 games they were the beneficiary of a +3 TO margin which is the only reason those games were close as they averaged only 332 ypg in those games. Last week v. Baylor, Iowa State performed closer to reality scoring only 10 points on 257 yards offense.

Nebraska’s offense is averaging 421 ypg (6.4 yppl) which is +1.3 yppl as they’ve faced good defenses that otherwise allow only 5.1 yppl and 346 ypg. Neb has been particularly good in the air averaging 8.6 ypa (which is +2.1 ypa). They get an ISU defense getting torched this year by competition far worse than Neb. ISU is allowing 8.4 ypa to bad passing teams that otherwise would only average 6.9 ypa. This creates a +3.5 ypa advantage for Neb, and my projections call for 10.3 ypa. That is a 1st down for every pass attempt (not completion but attempt). Total projections are for 486 yards offense (338 in the air) at 7.0 yppl.

Nebraska’s defense, despite allowing 380 ypg and 28 ppg (5.9 yppl) is actually better than average as they’ve faced a collective slate of very good offenses that average 432 ypg and 34 ppg (6.3 yppl), so Neb is actually +0.4 yppl better than average. That should be plenty good enough to keep an anemic ISU offense in check that is only averaging 336 ypg (5.1 yppl) despite playing some mediocre defenses that are allowing 360 ypg and 5.4 yppl. ISU is at a statistical disadvantage in every offensive category, and not a small one (they are -0.6 in ypr, ypa, and yppl). Our projections call for only 342 yards offense (5.4 yppl). I’ll lay 7 on the road getting the team that looks to average more yppl than the home team does ypa, and has the statistical advantage in every match up category in this game.

All our models are pretty consistent with 34-40 points for Nebraska, and a high indicator of 53 points (which given my projection of near 500 yards offense is actually quite likely). Because of the offenses Nebraska’s defense has faced this year, ISU’s offensive projections get skewed a little to the high side, despite Nebraska’s defense being decidedly better than ISUs offense (basically because Nebraska’s defense starts from a higher absolute base due to the offenses they faced and their scoring / yardage averages), which causes a model and math projection of 21-25 points for ISU. We’ll stick with that, but given the match up indicators, my guess is a performance closer to what ISU did last week to Baylor. Nebraska 37 Iowa State 23.

Quit dragging everybody's gameday down with your pathetic crying... Check out
TheGeekSheet, then go buy that round of Irish Car Bombs with confidence...You winner, you.

Saturday, October 11

BIG XII Euro Style Futbol Conference: It's Floptastic!

What a bunch of Titty Babies

You know, everybody seems to talk about all the quarterback talent in the Big XII, but they some how gloss over the high quality sandy vaginas that practices their floppery in the southwestern region. Screw "The Red River Shootout." Try "Steers and Queers."

And John Wayne rolls over in his grave.

Pictures and video to come, i'm sure.

edited to add: [others who feel the same]

Wednesday, October 8

That Was Quick

"Step Into My Office, Tony..."

No, I'm not talking about the famed fretless bassist of White Snake. Auburn's OC is SOL.

Auburn offensive coordinator Tony Franklin was relieved of his duties Wednesday halfway through his first season of directing a spread offense that never caught fire. Franklin is no longer on the coaching staff, said an Auburn official.

Head coach Tommy Tuberville told the team 3:30 of the dismissal.

"After evaluating where we are at this point of the season offensively, I felt it was in the best interest of the Auburn football program to make this change," Tuberville said. "I'm not satisfied with where we are and I am personally going to take a larger role with the offense the remainder of the season. We are going to work harder than ever to make sure we consistently improve as we move forward."

This should be interesting. Tuberville, the defensive-minded coach from way back, is gonna be "taking a more active roll in the offense." CEO Tuberville hasn't taken an active roll in anything actually football related in years. What will all those "spread" recruits think about the new Tubby offense?

Crazy! I don't know, I'm sure it's just some wild, baseless rumor. I feel like somebody just told me that Clay Aiken is gay.

a classic and classy photo from The Birmingham News


Tuesday, October 7

Bama Fan of the Week

just one of the perks of working the third shift at the Firestone plant [matt]

Nerd-Neck: one of tuscaloosa's top exports...sweet man-cankles too [stephen via dirty d]

Bonus (kickass tattoo edition):

You might not have even noticed this subtle tat through all the foliage and chickenpox

"Wow, nice pasty, tat."